Every year before the NFL draft, national pundits like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McKay offer one mock draft after another, flooding the Internet with so many predictions that it’s hard to keep track.
The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft was particularly chaotic, with a whirlwind selection including the Eagles moving up to No. 9 to take Georgia quarterback Jalen Carter. Everyone seemed to predict the Carolina Panthers would take Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick. After that it was chaos.
»READ MORE: 2023 NFL Draft: Second and Third Rounds Live
McShay, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremich and NBC Sports’ Peter King correctly predicted the Eagles would select Georgia quarterback Nolan Smith, but they all thought the Birds would take him at No. 10. No one, including Eagles beat writers Josh Tolentino. and EJ Smith — predicted that Smith would fall to No. 30 and that the Eagles would end the night with both him and Carter.
“Confused that the Eagles are leaving this first round with both Jayle Carter and Nolan Smith,” Jeremy wrote on Twitter late Thursday night.
All four experts believed Kentucky quarterback Will Lewis was a near certainty to go No. 4 to the Indianapolis Colts. Instead, the Colts took Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, and Lewis was forced to wait in the green on national television as team after team passed on him. By the end of the night, no one had selected Lewis and he remains in the draft, entering the second round.
“If I’m Will Lewis, I’m mad at all the people who told me I was going to be a top 5 pick,” college football analyst and SiriusXM host Danny Kannell. wrote on Twitter after the first round.
Here’s how four of the top NFL draft analysts fared in predicting the outcome of the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft:
Daniel Jeremich, NFL Network: 6 correct picks
Jeremy, a former Eagles scout turned NFL Network draft analyst, fared best Thursday, landing six of the night’s 31 picks.
After the Houston Texans drafted Texas quarterback KJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick, they traded up to the Tennessee Titans for the No. 3 pick as well, which surprised almost everyone but Jeremy.
Not only was he one of the top TV analysts to predict that the Texans would get Stroud (most thought he would go to the Titans), but Jeremiah somehow predicted the Texans-Titans trade and the Texans taking Alabama LB Will Anderson , Jr. No. 3.
» READ MORE: Howie Roseman defends Eagles’ Jalen Carter draft pick, only fair answer to wait and see
Todd McShay, ESPN: 4 picks right
McShay, who has been an ESPN draft analyst since 2006, ended the night right by predicting four picks.
Aside from Young going to the Panthers with the No. 1 overall pick, McShay beat the Atlanta Falcons by taking Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick, much to the disappointment of many Philly sports talk radio hosts.
McShay also correctly predicted that Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes would go to the Washington Commanders with the No. 16 pick and the Minnesota Vikings would take USC wide receiver Jordan Addison with the No. 23 pick.
Peter King, NBC Sports: 2 correct
Ahead of his latest mock draft earlier this week, King owned up to the fact that it’s a largely pointless venture, which he called “annual pointlessness.”
“I don’t think I know. In fact, I know I don’t know,” King wrote.
The King ended the first round by only successfully predicting two picks — Young to the Panthers at No. 1 and Robinson to the Falcons at No. 8.
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: Pick 1 is correct
In his 40s NFL draft, Kiper produced his least accurate draft.
Like nearly every other pundit, Kiper successfully predicted the Panthers would take Young at No. 1 overall. And all.
Not only that, but Kiper was one of the most outspoken defenders of Levis, calling him the second-best guard in the draft and a “top-five pick” ahead of Stroud and Richardson. Kiper tried to make sense of Levis’ fall to the second round late Thursday night, suggesting NFL executives were too focused on the left toe injury that caused Levis to miss time last year.
“He plays because he’s a tough, tough kid. And he played through the pain,” Kiper said. “I don’t know how you keep a turnover — Kentucky, with the offensive line as bad as it was — against Will Lewis. We’re not in the seventh round here.
We’ll have to wait and see who ends up getting it right, Kiper or the 27 NFL executives who passed him (five teams didn’t have a first-round pick).
Kiper was also the only one of the Big Four TV draft analysts to predict the Eagles would take Robinson, which would have seen longtime 94.1 WIP host Howard Eskin leave radio. Instead, the Falcons took Robinson with the No. 8 pick, leaving Kiper and all of Philadelphia to wonder what might have been.
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